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January 29th 2009

Issue 12

 

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When Things Go Wrong….

Yesterday, we received news that Eutelsat’s latest satellite, W2M, launched on 20 December 2008, had experienced a major anomaly affecting the satellite’s power subsystem. This had occurred as the satellite was transferring from its in-orbit test position to its operational position of 16 degrees East, where it would replace the W2 satellite well in advance of the end of its life. Although this failure is a huge disappointment to Eutelsat, they have plans in place to mitigate what has happened and the spacecraft is fully insured. However, there have been other recent incidents or ‘anomalies’. For example, Nigcomsat-1 was declared a total loss at the end of last year when it lost both its solar arrays, depriving Africa of much-needed coverage. Orbcomm also recently reported that all six satellites launched in June 2008 were experiencing pointing anomalies that could potentially impact on their performance.

 

It is true that small anomalies occur on a frequent basis within satellite fleets but these more serious cases equal insurance claims and therefore push the premiums up and up thus impacting on satellite manufacturers and endangering the satellite operator’s programmes and ambitions. The increasing complexity of satellites is surely a contributing factor to this problem.

In the late 1990s and early 2000s, there were a flurry of satellite anomalies. In fact they went up by a staggering 146 percent, with insurance premiums rising by 129 percent.

 

So why is this problem arising in the first place? Well, as we have said, satellites are becoming more complex in nature all the time with demand for more flexible payloads, for example. There are also a great deal more of them out there. Not only that, operators are racing to meet demand for services and putting added pressure upon manufacturers to keep the lead time as short as possible. So is too much being expected of the manufacturers which is leading to these in-orbit problems? This must be an issue. With a longer manufacturing cycle, they can perform more tests and apply enhanced quality control methods. This is especially important regarding more advanced forms of technology. As anyone knows, working under pressure and to a shorter time limit, the potential for making mistakes is greater. Satellite manufacturers have implemented strict quality control initiatives to counter any later in-orbit problems. A satellite usually experiences these anomalies within its first two years and therefore these are the most important.

 

An anomaly can be very damaging for a satellite manufacturer. These days, the media will have picked up on the news in double quick time and certainly give much attention to any satellite loss or launch failure. As a result, the manufacturer is subject to much criticism from the operator. It obviously is a great loss to the customer and their operations may well suffer as a result, but a spacecraft nowadays will be insured and operators are now very clued up on how to insure their assets to best effect if anything should go wrong. From the manufacturer’s point of view, they are faced with thin profit margins, a high price of raw materials, and every problem their customer experiences with a satellite they have built is a personal and financial blow.

 

That said, in the Eutelsat case, it seems that there were differences in what the customer asked for and what was delivered, so perhaps communication between the manufacturer and the customer needs to be improved so that the satellite fully meets the customer’s requirements.

At the end of the day, there is a great desire to minimise the financial risk from all points of view. The manufacturers obviously want to build on time and on target, but each satellite is different, and they face a true challenge to deliver the customer’s requirements over a relatively short period of time.


 

 


 

Eutelsat statement on W2M Satellite
Eutelsat Communications has announced that the performance of the W2M satellite, which was launched on 20 December 2008, does not comply with the requirements set with the spacecraft's manufacturer, EADS Astrium/ISRO Antrix, following a major anomaly affecting the satellite's power subsystem. This anomaly occurred during the satellite's transfer from the location used for in-orbit tests to its operating position at 16 degrees East where its mission was to replace well in advance Eutelsat's W2 satellite...

 

Boeing posts quarterly loss on strike impact and charges
The Boeing Company’s fourth-quarter net income declined to a loss of $56 million, or $0.08 per share, reflecting the now-settled machinists' strike (EPS impact estimated at $1.09 per share), a charge related to the 747 ($0.61 per share) and a litigation-related reserve ($0.09 per share)...

 

Telenor withdraws the proposed rights issue
Telenor has decided to fund its investment in Unitech Wireless in India through a combination of cash flow and issuance of additional debt. As a result of this Telenor withdraws the previously proposed rights issue of NOK 12 billion...

 

Thales Alenia space statement concerning Astra 5A
As announced on January 16, the Astra 5A satellite, formerly named Sirius 2 and operated by Swedish Space Corporation (SSC), experienced an abnormal event that led to a spacecraft attitude disturbance...

 

 


 

 

 

Where is the capacity going to come from

In the recently release Global Assessment of Satellite Demand 5th Edition market research study, NSR forecasted that the number of HD channels attributed to the Middle East & North Africa would increase by over 2,400% between 2007 and 2017. This spectacular jump in HD channels equals an average annual HD channel growth rate of 38% over the ten-year period.

 

Some years will see more HD channels launched, some fewer, but this is equivalent to an average of 13 new HD channels carried on satellite each and every year between now and 2017. With the prime video hot spots serving the region known to be largely full, one needs to ask the question: where will the capacity come from to carry all of these new HD channels?

Which Capacity to Include?

With any forecast (no matter who provides it), one must first understand the methodology behind the forecasts and how the market is defined. In general, the satellite industry would consider the Arabsat slots at 26.0 and 30.5 degrees East and Nilesat's 7.0 degrees West as the three main video broadcasting locations for the Middle East & North Africa. Further, add to this Eutelsat's Eurobird-2 satellite at 25.5 degrees East and of course the "Nilesat-103" satellite is none other than Eutelsat's Atlantic Bird-4 satellite, which is used by several other broadcasters for the Middle East & North Africa besides Nilesat.


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