NSR report: $68B opportunity for top 5 non-GEO HTS constellation players


NSR’s latest HTS Satellite Constellations: A Critical Assessment, 3rd Edition report deep dives into satcom feasibility for MEO and LEO orbits within a competitive scope of 5 players who lead the race to launch and showcase business viability. The report is a must-have for any player evaluating the LEO/MEO constellations market: end users, service providers, financers, suppliers, competitors and governments across all regions.

The report bases the analysis on goal-based IRR’s for each constellation to deduce necessary demand and revenue segments in order to close the business case. The report also depicts risk within each segment to objectively analyze each constellation on the basis of Architectural, CAPEX, and Competitive Strengths.

Given a range of technical and business complexities, LEO and MEO Constellations are inherently difficult to assess. NSR analyzes over 40 parameters to arrive at detailed business models and establishes under which conditions each constellation can succeed. As LEO/MEO constellations hold the promise of expanding the Total Addressable Market amidst a turbulent time for satcom, several challenges still exist in making this reality happen. NSR explicitly states these challenges in this report and the path to profitability. Internal Rate of Return (IRR), Cumulative Revenues, and Net Cash at End-of-Life are target metrics, from which NSR also derives Lifetime Avg. Fill Rates and Weighted Avg. Wholesale Pricing to give the user a clear perspective of fleet use and price elasticity within the system.

The report answers critical questions regarding the Satellite Constellations market:

  • Will all 5 major players SpaceX, OneWeb, mPower, Amazon and Telesat close their business cases?

  • What is the CAPEX, and which ground strategy works with which player?

  • What business models are anticipated to be put in use by each of the players?

  • What is extent of GEO competition anticipated and inherent price-demand elasticity present in each of the constellations?

  • What is the forecast for new revenue segments required to achieve the target IRR and Net Cash (EOL, discounted) to replenish?

Bottom Line: Under what conditions can each MEO/LEO Constellation prove to be commercially viable, and what assumptions must be made to underpin this assessment?

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